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rheinsberg2022-07-14 03:18 am
mildred_of_midgard) wrote in rheinsberg2022-07-14 03:18 am
Saxon diplomacy
Remember when selenak gave us a truly royal write-up of Sachsens Glanz und Preußens Gloria that was almost as good as having seen the miniseries?
And she reported this:
Brühl: So, I've been thinking. Silesia got unfortunately nabbed by Fritz of Prussia, but Saxony can still end up as a superpower by diplomacy, since he's been pissing off everyone else in the last decade. I' have this brilliant plan of creating an alliance between France and Austria, with Russia and Sweden joining in. And Saxony right in the middle.
Moscynska: Wow. How come you're letting this Kaunitz guy all the credit?
Brühl: I'm modest like that.
With later commentary:
selenak: Plans to invade and take Silesia by people not Fritz: well, I guess both Poland and Saxony do in fact share borders with Silesia, but Sulkowski planning to take it is entirely invented (by either the tv show or the original novelist). Yes, the Austrian army was in decline, but the Habsburgs still had not only their territories but the entire HRE to draw on (since this was before MT's Dad had died, his rule was uncontested). Such an action would have made August III. an outlaw all the other German princes would have been obliged to go against. And the Saxon army really wasn't nothing much, not least because all the money went elsehwere. If you don't have a completely modern, drilled and well equipped army at your disposal like Fritz did in 1740, in a situation where MT's rule hasn't been accepted yet, it can't be done.
It is, however, in tandem with this show letting the Saxons think of everything first - Silesia, and later the Diplomatic Revolution. (It's true that Brühl was involved in some of the negotiations, but it definitely hadn't been his brainchild.)
The TL;DR of my recent findings is:
Getting (at least part of) Silesia was one of Saxony's two main goals from at least 1726 to 1756. (The other being making Poland a hereditary monarchy.) They had absolutely no chance of taking it by force, for the reasons Selena spelled out, but they were relentlessly campaigning to get it by diplomacy. So the miniseries was...on the right track about Saxony's goals but taking creative license with their methods for dramatic purposes?
Once Silesia was in Prussian hands and Prussia had permanently alienated Saxony, the only way to get Silesia was by taking it from Prussia. Which Saxony absolutely could not do, for the reasons Selena spelled out. So Brühl set out on a mission to get Austria and France to set aside their differences, form a coalition with Russia and whoever else wanted to join (hopefully GB), and wage war on the real enemy: Fritz. Brühl's attempts to pull off the Diplomatic Revolution started in 1744, 5 years before Kaunitz's first memorandum, and continued unbroken for 12 years, independently of Kaunitz, so the miniseries got at least that much right!
Unfortunately for Brühl, not only were his efforts unsuccessful, but he missed his brief window in 1756 to join Kaunitz's coalition, so everything generally sucked for Saxony all around.
Background
As for why Saxony wants Silesia more than anything? Land bridge between Saxony and Poland.
Map:
As things stand, Saxons have to get permission from Austria (later Prussia) to move between their two main territories, pay tolls on commerce, and don't even get me started on the difficulty of moving troops through someone else's territory.
This puts Saxony in the exact mirror position of Prussia, which wants to partition Poland because they at least theoretically have to get permission from Poland (later Saxony-Poland) to move between their two main territories, pay tolls on commerce, etc.
This puts Saxony and Prussia into a zero-sum game where each step one of them takes toward becoming a great power comes at the expense of the other.
Also, apparently Prussia wanted to partition Poland as early as FW's time (it's not clear whether this is FW or his ministers), but couldn't get an international majority approval. Poor Poland.
Silesia
selenak: Would be curious to learn how Saxony was planning to get Silesia by non-military means pre 1740 - what exactly would they have offered to MT's Dad to hand it over?
Joining the Alliance of Vienna and supplying 12,000 troops for Austrian needs inside the HRE. You may remember that the 1720s diplomatic scene, which I researched a few months ago, was so full of crazy and ever-shifting alliance negotiations that Blanning thinks even the most gifted narrator would struggle to make an accounting of the period either interesting or relevant, but I find the topsy-turviness fascinating!
So as a reminder: In 1725, Austria and Spain joined together in the Alliance of Vienna, directed against France and Great Britain (who are bizarrely allied in this period!). Everyone was trying to sweep up as many European powers to join their respective bloc as they could. Saxony was like, "You want me to join your alliance? You'll have to pay for it! We'll take subsidies or part of Silesia."
Negotations: *drag on*
Charles VI, eventually: "Sorry, Saxony, we ended up with Russia, Trier, Cologne, the Palatine, Bavaria, and sort-of Prussia. Don't need you that badly any more!"
This was also the story of Brühl's attempts to get Silesia and then to form an anti-Prussia bloc: European courts would hear Saxon proposals out, because Saxony was in such a strategically key position, but because they set their demands so high and also waited to make a move until they were absolutely sure they wouldn't be risking an invasion by Austria, Prussia, or Russia, they never ended up getting what they wanted.
In 1741, Saxony offered to help defend MT against Fritz in return for a land bridge through Silesia. MT made a counteroffer of "Austria will still own this land bridge, you'll just have permission to use it during August III's lifetime. And I'm not even sure I want to give you that!"
But what Saxony really wanted was to be on the winning side, because their army and treasury situation meant Brühl didn't feel confident taking risks. So when MT was delaying ratifying the treaty, Brühl was sounding out the French and listening to alliance proposals from Fritz.
Saxony then ended up allied with Prussia and France.
But Fritz was busy pissing off all his allies in 1742, so once it came time for the Second Silesian War in 1744-1745, Saxony switched sides to ally with Austria. By that time, it was clear you couldn't just *take* Silesia from Prussia, you would need all of Europe on your side. So Brühl started trying to make peace between the French and Austrians, get the Russians involved, etc. But he couldn't afford to piss off an invasion-happy Prussia, so he got a reputation for duplicity on all sides.
Also, this time MT wouldn't agree to even think about giving Saxony part of Silesia. She said that if the war against Prussia was successful, they could partition Prussia, and Saxony could have their land bridge through historically Prussian territory. Which was not nearly as geographically favorable for Saxony as Silesia. Also, it was much less likely to happen.
Then this!
1745: Saxony and Austria are all set to invade Brandenburg. Hanke thinks this was their big chance to knock Prussia out of the war. But Russia, meaning Elizaveta, says she's bound by her defensive alliance with Prussia to defend it against any invasion.
MT and Brühl: Does Silesia count as "Prussia"?
Elizaveta: Legally? Yes. You did sign a treaty recognizing that in 1742, MT. For the purposes of "Will I recognize my treaty obligations to protect it?" No, go for it.
Austrian and Saxon troops: *invade Silesia instead of Brandenburg*
Fritz: Why is everyone trying to kidnap what I have rightfully stolen?!! Nobody respects the Treaty of Breslau, dammit.
November 1745: Prussia invades Saxony.
December 1745: The Old Dessauer kicks Saxon butt at the Battle of Kesseldorf, making Fritz so happy that one of my secondary sources says he hugged the Old Dessauer. (Which is impressive, since as we've seen, he was not a fan!)
December 1745: Prussian army, commanded by Fritz and the Old Dessauer, occupies Dresden.
December 25, 1745: The Treaty of Dresden ends the Second Silesian War, leaving Silesia (and Biche) in Fritz's hands, and Saxony out in the cold again. (Oh, and Saxony has to pay a war indemnity of 1 million thalers for pissing Fritz off.)
Wannabe Diplomatic Revolutionaries
So after Fritz has consolidated his hold on Silesia, Brühl recognizes that there's only one way to get it.
1746-1747: Brühl starts making some headway in his efforts to broker a peace between Austria and France. Now, brokering a peace between two major powers is a thing that makes a middleweight power like Saxony move up the totem pole. If two major powers take you seriously like that, it makes you look good and gives you political advantages. This is why Fritz is always offering to broker peaces too.
But! In a foreshadowing of things to come, the peace talks shift to a congress in which Saxony just gets to play a middleman role and not a leadership role. Sorry, Saxony!
1748: Peace of Aix-la-Chapelle aka Aachen, ending the War of the Austrian Succession.
1749: Since France and Austria are no longer at war, MT asks her ministers for their take on the foreign policy scene, and Kaunitz produces his memo on "Why we should ally with France."
In 1752, Fritz gets a Saxon secretary in his pay, who copies every document that goes through his office and sends it to Fritz. MT and Kaunitz start to realize that all Saxon secrets are immediately known to Fritz.
In 1756, MT and Kaunitz therefore make the effort to keep all their negotiations with France super secret from Saxony. Which is why that whole thing plays out without any involvement of Brühl, even though everyone knew he wanted this more than anything.
Watching Brühl speculate about what's going on in late 1755/early 1756, as the Diplomatic Revolution is negotiated, and as MT and Britain maneuver to get Russia in their corner, is so much like watching Fritz's opinions unfold that I have to wonder just how much of Fritz's opinions were garnered straight from those Saxon write-ups he got.
So what happens there is even after word starts to get out about the Diplomatic Revolution, there's a lot of "Oh, it'll never last" and "How much have they promised each other, anyway? Probably not much" and "Nothing to see here."
Then when people start to realize this alliance is serious business, and Austria and France ask Saxony if it wants to join, Brühl hesitates.
Brühl: Hmm. Let's consider the options here. Russia is firmly in GB's pocket. GB is subsidizing Russia, and Russia wants those British-funded troops to invade East Prussia.
Brühl: And of course Britain is at war with France.
Brühl: So Russia's never going to join an Austro-French alliance that will put them at odds with their British paymasters.
Brühl: So if we join Austria-France, we'll end up at war with Russia and GB.
Brühl: And Russia lives right next door to Poland, and they want a weak Poland, and the last thing they want is us getting a land bridge and consolidating our territories and making Poland a hereditary monarchy and all powerful and threatening to them and stuff. And they're really not big on France having influence in Poland.
Brühl: And Russia has LOTS and LOTS of troops and lives right next door, and the British have LOTS and LOTS of money, and we have neither.
Brühl: Conclusion: we can't afford to piss off Russia!
Brühl: We also have this neighbor to the north who's very invasion-happy. We can't afford to piss off Prussia until we're sure Russia won't take their side.
Brühl: Conclusion: Saxony can't afford to join this alliance until Russia is on board.
So instead of leaping on the bandwagon, Brühl starts negotiating for "If Fritz invades Saxony, you'll defend us, right? Send lots of troops? Big armies with your best generals?" with Austria and France.
MT and Kaunitz: ...Look, we'd love to have you, but we don't need you that much.
Brühl: But what if we--
Fritz: Too late, Saxony, I already invaded! You snooze, you lose.
Now Saxony is diplomatically isolated as a result of all its caution, and under ruthless enemy occupation. It's screwed. The Diplomatic Revolution that Brühl had tried to pull off was implemented without any reference to Saxony in the end, and the Saxons missed their chance to even join it.
Footnote
Incidentally, Jürgen Luh reviewed one of the books I read, René Hanke's Brühl und das Renversement des alliances, and then got into an argument with the author that went like this:
Hanke's book: Brühl was the real diplomatic innovator in Europe! He doesn't get enough credit.
Luh's review: Okay, but that's because he didn't pull it off. Brühl can talk all he wants about who should ally with whom, but Kaunitz is the real innovator here.
Hanke's reply to Luh's review: Luh seems to think that I said Brühl was responsible for the Diplomatic Revolution. I didn't! We all know that was Kaunitz. But Brühl thought of it first!
Luh's reply to Hanke's reply: Somehow, what I said got misconstrued as accusing Hanke of saying Brühl masterminded the Diplomatic Revolution. I never said that. What I said is that it doesn't matter who thought of it first (and the idea had been proposed before Brühl anyway). What matters is who makes the alliance happen, and that's NOT your guy!
Saxony's Diplomacy and Prussia's Gangsters With Good PR
I.e. the title of my next miniseries. :P
selenak: Brühl having the Diplomatic Revolution idea before Kaunitz: explains some of Fritz' deeply personal hostility, though otoh, if he couldn't pull it off on his lonesome...?
Okay, so this hits on a few things I wanted to talk about!
One, Hanke says the fact that Brühl was trying to negotiate a partition of Prussia is something you would think is well-known to historians, not worth writing an entire book to beat this dead horse. But, Hanke says, historians have all been getting their information for Saxony's alleged nefarious plans to join Europe in partitioning Prussia from an anti-Brühl pamphlet Fritz had commissioned during the Seven Years' War to justify his invasion! He had Hertzberg (future rival of Heinrich for influence over FW2, of whom we've heard before) write a pamphlet that they presented as totally legit and rescued from a building during a fire (a fire that never happened and Fritz totally made up), which revealed all Brühl's alleged schemes.
Then sometime in the 19th century, some Saxon historian who was pissed off at present-day neighbor Prussia wrote a counter-pamphlet going "No, we totally didn't."
Before Hanke, everyone was apparently relying on these two biased pamphlets. Hanke said it was high time someone went through the Saxon archives and looked for the actual evidence for Brühl's actual activity. Which even Luh conceded Hanke did a good job on (although he questioned Hanke's decision to go through the archives of every country *except* Prussia's).
And the verdict, as we saw, was that Saxony totally wanted to partition Prussia and had been trying to make it happen for 12 years, but, was legally a neutral party and part of no formal agreement to harm Prussia in 1756, because they were so commitment-phobic. Meaning Fritz had no legal justification for invading Saxony (never mind what he did while he was there).
Two, Luh wrote an article (in a volume that was too expensive for me to obtain, but I was able to read a review of it) about how Brühl neglected public opinion in his war with Fritz, whereas Fritz went all-out on propaganda, and that PR played a huge role in why Fritz/Prussia was both the short-term and long-term winner in their hostilities.
Three, see next section.
It's Personal
selenak: Also, I'm still fond of my headcanon that since young Brühl was involved in organizing the Zeithain camp and Fritz not only was publically humiliated there but in vain tried to approach Manteuffel's arch nemesis who would later be toppled by Brühl via Katte for support, there was some long term grudge because of that as well.
mildred_of_midgard: I remember we talked about this before, but I had misremembered it as canon! But during my Brühl research, I turned up an article by Luh for the 300th Fritzversary in 2012 in which Luh makes the case that things were SO VERY PERSONAL between Fritz and Brühl because Brühl told FW about Fritz's escape plans at Zeithain.
Luh's arguments:
- At Zeithain, FW awarded Brühl with the Order of the Black Eagle, the highest order of chivalry in Prussia.
- Up-and-coming young Brühl might be someone it made sense for someone like Manteuffel to attach himself to, but why would the King of Prussia be noticing this young fellow?
- The award has been attributed by historians to Brühl's role in organizing the camp, but that's a bit much, especially since August the Strong had the idea for Zeithain and took the lead in making it happen.
- Sure, Brühl witnessed or at least heard about the big public humiliation, but so did a lot of people. Fritz didn't hate them all.
- Sure, Brühl conspired to partition Prussia, but so did a lot of people. It was never that personal with any of Fritz's other political enemies.
- *Someone* told FW about Fritz's plans at Zeithain. Who? Not Katte. Not Guy Dickens. And Fritz always said nice things about Hoym.
- Brühl is known to have had contact with both Hoym and Guy Dickens at the time, so he could totally have found out.
Conclusion: we'll never know for sure, but Brühl betraying Fritz's escape plans to FW in 1730 is a very logical explanation for the sheer intensity and duration of Fritz's deep, personal, embittered hatred for the man.
cahn: How would Fritz have found out? Or would he have known all along?
mildred_of_midgard: My guess? Well, as long as we're speculating based on psychology: FW told him. One way abusers control their victims is by isolating them, telling them that everyone will side with the abuser and that the victim won't be believed or helped. We know FW did this when Fritz was in Küstrin, he gave orders that Fritz was to be told that no one in Berlin had asked about him or cared about him, his mother was angry at him, etc.
I think it was in FW's best interests as well as in character for him to tell Fritz exactly who had sided with FW in this.
If not, well, Fritz did review the relevant archival material in 1740, and possibly destroyed some materials before closing up the archives again. There might have been evidence of Brühl's involvement there that hasn't survived.
Ugh.
selenak gave us a truly royal write-up of Sachsens Glanz und Preußens Gloria that was almost as good as having seen the miniseries?And she reported this:
Brühl: So, I've been thinking. Silesia got unfortunately nabbed by Fritz of Prussia, but Saxony can still end up as a superpower by diplomacy, since he's been pissing off everyone else in the last decade. I' have this brilliant plan of creating an alliance between France and Austria, with Russia and Sweden joining in. And Saxony right in the middle.
Moscynska: Wow. How come you're letting this Kaunitz guy all the credit?
Brühl: I'm modest like that.
With later commentary:
selenak: Plans to invade and take Silesia by people not Fritz: well, I guess both Poland and Saxony do in fact share borders with Silesia, but Sulkowski planning to take it is entirely invented (by either the tv show or the original novelist). Yes, the Austrian army was in decline, but the Habsburgs still had not only their territories but the entire HRE to draw on (since this was before MT's Dad had died, his rule was uncontested). Such an action would have made August III. an outlaw all the other German princes would have been obliged to go against. And the Saxon army really wasn't nothing much, not least because all the money went elsehwere. If you don't have a completely modern, drilled and well equipped army at your disposal like Fritz did in 1740, in a situation where MT's rule hasn't been accepted yet, it can't be done.It is, however, in tandem with this show letting the Saxons think of everything first - Silesia, and later the Diplomatic Revolution. (It's true that Brühl was involved in some of the negotiations, but it definitely hadn't been his brainchild.)
The TL;DR of my recent findings is:
Getting (at least part of) Silesia was one of Saxony's two main goals from at least 1726 to 1756. (The other being making Poland a hereditary monarchy.) They had absolutely no chance of taking it by force, for the reasons Selena spelled out, but they were relentlessly campaigning to get it by diplomacy. So the miniseries was...on the right track about Saxony's goals but taking creative license with their methods for dramatic purposes?
Once Silesia was in Prussian hands and Prussia had permanently alienated Saxony, the only way to get Silesia was by taking it from Prussia. Which Saxony absolutely could not do, for the reasons Selena spelled out. So Brühl set out on a mission to get Austria and France to set aside their differences, form a coalition with Russia and whoever else wanted to join (hopefully GB), and wage war on the real enemy: Fritz. Brühl's attempts to pull off the Diplomatic Revolution started in 1744, 5 years before Kaunitz's first memorandum, and continued unbroken for 12 years, independently of Kaunitz, so the miniseries got at least that much right!
Unfortunately for Brühl, not only were his efforts unsuccessful, but he missed his brief window in 1756 to join Kaunitz's coalition, so everything generally sucked for Saxony all around.
Background
As for why Saxony wants Silesia more than anything? Land bridge between Saxony and Poland.
Map:
As things stand, Saxons have to get permission from Austria (later Prussia) to move between their two main territories, pay tolls on commerce, and don't even get me started on the difficulty of moving troops through someone else's territory.
This puts Saxony in the exact mirror position of Prussia, which wants to partition Poland because they at least theoretically have to get permission from Poland (later Saxony-Poland) to move between their two main territories, pay tolls on commerce, etc.
This puts Saxony and Prussia into a zero-sum game where each step one of them takes toward becoming a great power comes at the expense of the other.
Also, apparently Prussia wanted to partition Poland as early as FW's time (it's not clear whether this is FW or his ministers), but couldn't get an international majority approval. Poor Poland.
Silesia
selenak: Would be curious to learn how Saxony was planning to get Silesia by non-military means pre 1740 - what exactly would they have offered to MT's Dad to hand it over?Joining the Alliance of Vienna and supplying 12,000 troops for Austrian needs inside the HRE. You may remember that the 1720s diplomatic scene, which I researched a few months ago, was so full of crazy and ever-shifting alliance negotiations that Blanning thinks even the most gifted narrator would struggle to make an accounting of the period either interesting or relevant, but I find the topsy-turviness fascinating!
So as a reminder: In 1725, Austria and Spain joined together in the Alliance of Vienna, directed against France and Great Britain (who are bizarrely allied in this period!). Everyone was trying to sweep up as many European powers to join their respective bloc as they could. Saxony was like, "You want me to join your alliance? You'll have to pay for it! We'll take subsidies or part of Silesia."
Negotations: *drag on*
Charles VI, eventually: "Sorry, Saxony, we ended up with Russia, Trier, Cologne, the Palatine, Bavaria, and sort-of Prussia. Don't need you that badly any more!"
This was also the story of Brühl's attempts to get Silesia and then to form an anti-Prussia bloc: European courts would hear Saxon proposals out, because Saxony was in such a strategically key position, but because they set their demands so high and also waited to make a move until they were absolutely sure they wouldn't be risking an invasion by Austria, Prussia, or Russia, they never ended up getting what they wanted.
In 1741, Saxony offered to help defend MT against Fritz in return for a land bridge through Silesia. MT made a counteroffer of "Austria will still own this land bridge, you'll just have permission to use it during August III's lifetime. And I'm not even sure I want to give you that!"
But what Saxony really wanted was to be on the winning side, because their army and treasury situation meant Brühl didn't feel confident taking risks. So when MT was delaying ratifying the treaty, Brühl was sounding out the French and listening to alliance proposals from Fritz.
Saxony then ended up allied with Prussia and France.
But Fritz was busy pissing off all his allies in 1742, so once it came time for the Second Silesian War in 1744-1745, Saxony switched sides to ally with Austria. By that time, it was clear you couldn't just *take* Silesia from Prussia, you would need all of Europe on your side. So Brühl started trying to make peace between the French and Austrians, get the Russians involved, etc. But he couldn't afford to piss off an invasion-happy Prussia, so he got a reputation for duplicity on all sides.
Also, this time MT wouldn't agree to even think about giving Saxony part of Silesia. She said that if the war against Prussia was successful, they could partition Prussia, and Saxony could have their land bridge through historically Prussian territory. Which was not nearly as geographically favorable for Saxony as Silesia. Also, it was much less likely to happen.
Then this!
1745: Saxony and Austria are all set to invade Brandenburg. Hanke thinks this was their big chance to knock Prussia out of the war. But Russia, meaning Elizaveta, says she's bound by her defensive alliance with Prussia to defend it against any invasion.
MT and Brühl: Does Silesia count as "Prussia"?
Elizaveta: Legally? Yes. You did sign a treaty recognizing that in 1742, MT. For the purposes of "Will I recognize my treaty obligations to protect it?" No, go for it.
Austrian and Saxon troops: *invade Silesia instead of Brandenburg*
Fritz: Why is everyone trying to kidnap what I have rightfully stolen?!! Nobody respects the Treaty of Breslau, dammit.
November 1745: Prussia invades Saxony.
December 1745: The Old Dessauer kicks Saxon butt at the Battle of Kesseldorf, making Fritz so happy that one of my secondary sources says he hugged the Old Dessauer. (Which is impressive, since as we've seen, he was not a fan!)
December 1745: Prussian army, commanded by Fritz and the Old Dessauer, occupies Dresden.
December 25, 1745: The Treaty of Dresden ends the Second Silesian War, leaving Silesia (and Biche) in Fritz's hands, and Saxony out in the cold again. (Oh, and Saxony has to pay a war indemnity of 1 million thalers for pissing Fritz off.)
Wannabe Diplomatic Revolutionaries
So after Fritz has consolidated his hold on Silesia, Brühl recognizes that there's only one way to get it.
1746-1747: Brühl starts making some headway in his efforts to broker a peace between Austria and France. Now, brokering a peace between two major powers is a thing that makes a middleweight power like Saxony move up the totem pole. If two major powers take you seriously like that, it makes you look good and gives you political advantages. This is why Fritz is always offering to broker peaces too.
But! In a foreshadowing of things to come, the peace talks shift to a congress in which Saxony just gets to play a middleman role and not a leadership role. Sorry, Saxony!
1748: Peace of Aix-la-Chapelle aka Aachen, ending the War of the Austrian Succession.
1749: Since France and Austria are no longer at war, MT asks her ministers for their take on the foreign policy scene, and Kaunitz produces his memo on "Why we should ally with France."
In 1752, Fritz gets a Saxon secretary in his pay, who copies every document that goes through his office and sends it to Fritz. MT and Kaunitz start to realize that all Saxon secrets are immediately known to Fritz.
In 1756, MT and Kaunitz therefore make the effort to keep all their negotiations with France super secret from Saxony. Which is why that whole thing plays out without any involvement of Brühl, even though everyone knew he wanted this more than anything.
Watching Brühl speculate about what's going on in late 1755/early 1756, as the Diplomatic Revolution is negotiated, and as MT and Britain maneuver to get Russia in their corner, is so much like watching Fritz's opinions unfold that I have to wonder just how much of Fritz's opinions were garnered straight from those Saxon write-ups he got.
So what happens there is even after word starts to get out about the Diplomatic Revolution, there's a lot of "Oh, it'll never last" and "How much have they promised each other, anyway? Probably not much" and "Nothing to see here."
Then when people start to realize this alliance is serious business, and Austria and France ask Saxony if it wants to join, Brühl hesitates.
Brühl: Hmm. Let's consider the options here. Russia is firmly in GB's pocket. GB is subsidizing Russia, and Russia wants those British-funded troops to invade East Prussia.
Brühl: And of course Britain is at war with France.
Brühl: So Russia's never going to join an Austro-French alliance that will put them at odds with their British paymasters.
Brühl: So if we join Austria-France, we'll end up at war with Russia and GB.
Brühl: And Russia lives right next door to Poland, and they want a weak Poland, and the last thing they want is us getting a land bridge and consolidating our territories and making Poland a hereditary monarchy and all powerful and threatening to them and stuff. And they're really not big on France having influence in Poland.
Brühl: And Russia has LOTS and LOTS of troops and lives right next door, and the British have LOTS and LOTS of money, and we have neither.
Brühl: Conclusion: we can't afford to piss off Russia!
Brühl: We also have this neighbor to the north who's very invasion-happy. We can't afford to piss off Prussia until we're sure Russia won't take their side.
Brühl: Conclusion: Saxony can't afford to join this alliance until Russia is on board.
So instead of leaping on the bandwagon, Brühl starts negotiating for "If Fritz invades Saxony, you'll defend us, right? Send lots of troops? Big armies with your best generals?" with Austria and France.
MT and Kaunitz: ...Look, we'd love to have you, but we don't need you that much.
Brühl: But what if we--
Fritz: Too late, Saxony, I already invaded! You snooze, you lose.
Now Saxony is diplomatically isolated as a result of all its caution, and under ruthless enemy occupation. It's screwed. The Diplomatic Revolution that Brühl had tried to pull off was implemented without any reference to Saxony in the end, and the Saxons missed their chance to even join it.
Footnote
Incidentally, Jürgen Luh reviewed one of the books I read, René Hanke's Brühl und das Renversement des alliances, and then got into an argument with the author that went like this:
Hanke's book: Brühl was the real diplomatic innovator in Europe! He doesn't get enough credit.
Luh's review: Okay, but that's because he didn't pull it off. Brühl can talk all he wants about who should ally with whom, but Kaunitz is the real innovator here.
Hanke's reply to Luh's review: Luh seems to think that I said Brühl was responsible for the Diplomatic Revolution. I didn't! We all know that was Kaunitz. But Brühl thought of it first!
Luh's reply to Hanke's reply: Somehow, what I said got misconstrued as accusing Hanke of saying Brühl masterminded the Diplomatic Revolution. I never said that. What I said is that it doesn't matter who thought of it first (and the idea had been proposed before Brühl anyway). What matters is who makes the alliance happen, and that's NOT your guy!
Saxony's Diplomacy and Prussia's Gangsters With Good PR
I.e. the title of my next miniseries. :P
selenak: Brühl having the Diplomatic Revolution idea before Kaunitz: explains some of Fritz' deeply personal hostility, though otoh, if he couldn't pull it off on his lonesome...?Okay, so this hits on a few things I wanted to talk about!
One, Hanke says the fact that Brühl was trying to negotiate a partition of Prussia is something you would think is well-known to historians, not worth writing an entire book to beat this dead horse. But, Hanke says, historians have all been getting their information for Saxony's alleged nefarious plans to join Europe in partitioning Prussia from an anti-Brühl pamphlet Fritz had commissioned during the Seven Years' War to justify his invasion! He had Hertzberg (future rival of Heinrich for influence over FW2, of whom we've heard before) write a pamphlet that they presented as totally legit and rescued from a building during a fire (a fire that never happened and Fritz totally made up), which revealed all Brühl's alleged schemes.
Then sometime in the 19th century, some Saxon historian who was pissed off at present-day neighbor Prussia wrote a counter-pamphlet going "No, we totally didn't."
Before Hanke, everyone was apparently relying on these two biased pamphlets. Hanke said it was high time someone went through the Saxon archives and looked for the actual evidence for Brühl's actual activity. Which even Luh conceded Hanke did a good job on (although he questioned Hanke's decision to go through the archives of every country *except* Prussia's).
And the verdict, as we saw, was that Saxony totally wanted to partition Prussia and had been trying to make it happen for 12 years, but, was legally a neutral party and part of no formal agreement to harm Prussia in 1756, because they were so commitment-phobic. Meaning Fritz had no legal justification for invading Saxony (never mind what he did while he was there).
Two, Luh wrote an article (in a volume that was too expensive for me to obtain, but I was able to read a review of it) about how Brühl neglected public opinion in his war with Fritz, whereas Fritz went all-out on propaganda, and that PR played a huge role in why Fritz/Prussia was both the short-term and long-term winner in their hostilities.
Three, see next section.
It's Personal
selenak: Also, I'm still fond of my headcanon that since young Brühl was involved in organizing the Zeithain camp and Fritz not only was publically humiliated there but in vain tried to approach Manteuffel's arch nemesis who would later be toppled by Brühl via Katte for support, there was some long term grudge because of that as well.mildred_of_midgard: I remember we talked about this before, but I had misremembered it as canon! But during my Brühl research, I turned up an article by Luh for the 300th Fritzversary in 2012 in which Luh makes the case that things were SO VERY PERSONAL between Fritz and Brühl because Brühl told FW about Fritz's escape plans at Zeithain.Luh's arguments:
- At Zeithain, FW awarded Brühl with the Order of the Black Eagle, the highest order of chivalry in Prussia.
- Up-and-coming young Brühl might be someone it made sense for someone like Manteuffel to attach himself to, but why would the King of Prussia be noticing this young fellow?
- The award has been attributed by historians to Brühl's role in organizing the camp, but that's a bit much, especially since August the Strong had the idea for Zeithain and took the lead in making it happen.
- Sure, Brühl witnessed or at least heard about the big public humiliation, but so did a lot of people. Fritz didn't hate them all.
- Sure, Brühl conspired to partition Prussia, but so did a lot of people. It was never that personal with any of Fritz's other political enemies.
- *Someone* told FW about Fritz's plans at Zeithain. Who? Not Katte. Not Guy Dickens. And Fritz always said nice things about Hoym.
- Brühl is known to have had contact with both Hoym and Guy Dickens at the time, so he could totally have found out.
Conclusion: we'll never know for sure, but Brühl betraying Fritz's escape plans to FW in 1730 is a very logical explanation for the sheer intensity and duration of Fritz's deep, personal, embittered hatred for the man.
cahn: How would Fritz have found out? Or would he have known all along?mildred_of_midgard: My guess? Well, as long as we're speculating based on psychology: FW told him. One way abusers control their victims is by isolating them, telling them that everyone will side with the abuser and that the victim won't be believed or helped. We know FW did this when Fritz was in Küstrin, he gave orders that Fritz was to be told that no one in Berlin had asked about him or cared about him, his mother was angry at him, etc.I think it was in FW's best interests as well as in character for him to tell Fritz exactly who had sided with FW in this.
If not, well, Fritz did review the relevant archival material in 1740, and possibly destroyed some materials before closing up the archives again. There might have been evidence of Brühl's involvement there that hasn't survived.
Ugh.