rheinsberg | War of the Austrian Succession: Foreign Policy (Reply)

selenak asked what would have happened if Maria Theresia had taken up Fritz's offer of Silesia in return for defence of her realm against the rest of Europe. In the course of some lengthy speculation, we ended up writing down a lot of what actually did happen. Here are the notes on the factual parts. See the thread linked to for the speculative parts.

mildred_of_midgard: Part of the reason MT was able to come off so well, holding on to everything apart from Silesia, was the same reason Prussia was able to survive the Seven Years' War: Having four enemies doesn't mean they're all super into supporting each others' land grabs. Fritz specifically wanted to keep France, Bavaria, and Saxony from getting too powerful in Germany. Or as Macaulay put it, "He had no wish to raise France to supreme power on the continent, at the expense of the house of Hapsburg. His first object was to rob the Queen of Hungary. His second was that, if possible, nobody should rob her but himself."

Macaulay actually said that before Fritz invaded, it was looking like Europe would respect the Pragmatic Sanction, and that there wouldn't have been a war of the Austrian Succession without him. I was skeptical at the time, but now having dug more into the internal politics of each country, I'm less skeptical. Saxony and France each have reasons not to go to war over Habsburg territory. Bavaria's unlikely to act alone. Spain would have gone to war regardless, but only in Italy. Russia was in support of Austria and the Pragmatic Sanction (and, like, genuinely, not reluctantly),

selenak: One reason why MT - who, it‘s always worth pointing out, was the first female Habsburg to rule not as a regent for a male monarch but as a monarch in her own right - managed to have her authority accepted in her own realms was that nobility and people alike could see she didn‘t fold, that she didn‘t flee, that she wasn‘t dominated by a favourite and/or her husband. As Rillinger points out, the caricatures during the first two Silesian Wars show the changing public perception - at first you have the misogynistic ones, some even with rape imagery (not disapproving of the rapists), and she’s a damsel crying for help, whereas later you have her wearing the proverbial pants instead. I‘m also thinking of all the envoy reports by Podewils between Silesian Wars saying MT is now bossing everyone around and thus showing what‘s under the „attacked woman“ mask. (Meaning she acts like any other male monarch, I suppose.) Would people have let themselves be ordered if she hadn‘t stood up to Fritz? Female rulers perceived as „weak“ usually don‘t end up ruling long.

Saxony
Saxony has a weak military and is geographically located between Prussia and Austria. Their entire foreign policy in the 1740s and 1750s revolved around being reluctant to take on *either* Prussia or Austria, because the risks were so high. Taking on both of them? I don't think it's happening.

If you look at what Saxony actually did in 1741, it went like this:

Dec 1740-summer 1741: Play a waiting game to sell their services to the highest bidder, while sounding out both sides.

Early 1741: Sign a treaty with Austria to help protect it in return for a land bridge through Silesia, and try to get the treaty ratified. My sources are divided here on whether MT finally ratified it but took too long, or didn't ratify it after her envoy signed it (seems far more likely), but either way, that was the first move they made, and both my sources agree that it was only because the treaty didn't get ratified by the time the Saxons needed it ratified that they switched sides.

Summer 1741: Notice that Prussia, France, Bavaria, and Spain are allied, and if MT isn't handing out territory, there's no point to taking on that coalition. Switch sides and join coalition instead.

Summer 1742: Notice that the Austria-GB alliance is holding out pretty well, and Fritz has just signed a separate peace, so no more powerful ally next door. Also, Fritz kind of sucked as an ally even while he was in the war. Give up and drop out of the coalition, only to join the other side later for the Second Silesian War.

So Saxony joined more or less under pressure from their Prussian and Bavarian neighbors and dropped out as soon as Fritz did.

selenak: Might August 3 use the fact he‘s married to her older cousin and have a go at either the Habsburg heritage or the Imperial crown?

mildred_of_midgard: But that's not an AU, that's real life. They tried that, and they couldn't get enough recognition of August 3's claim. France had a longstanding history of supporting Bavaria as their anti-Habsburg catspaw in central Europe, and France, to the extent that it was going to recognize any non-Habsburg candidate*, decided to follow their usual foreign policy tradition and support the Wittelsbach claim. And there are three Wittelsbach electors, who vote as a bloc.

* Louis XV, if this isn't apocryphal, initially said, "As long they don't elect a Protestant, I don't care." Belle-Isle, and the now disgraced Chauvelin, and the rest of the strong anti-Habsburg faction during this period were pro-Wittelsbach, and had been going back into the 1720s and 1730s, when Charles VI was hawking his Pragmatic Sanction around Europe.

France
At the start of 1741, Cardinal Fleury is pro-peace and pro-keeping the Pragmatic Sanction, as is Louis. The head of the hawk faction is the Comte de Belle-Isle (grandson of Foucquet, who showed up in the Iron Mask saga). Public opinion is with Belle-Isle.

When MT's dad Charles VI died, Fleury initially refused to support the Bavarian claimant. By early 1741, he had been pushed as far as supporting the Wittelsbach Charles Albert (future Charles VII), but didn't want any partition of the Habsburg domains. He sent Belle-Isle off as envoy to the Imperial Diet with this in mind, but Belle-Isle was of the opinion that the Bavarian guy could only realistically be an emperor if he got his hands on the Habsburg domains.

To quote Eveline Cruickshanks, a scholar who wrote about internal French politics and foreign policy during this period and whose work gets cited a lot, "Circumstances also turned in the favour of Belle-Isle and against the old chief minister. Frederick II's invasion of Silesia in December 1740 modified the international situation. The election of a non-Hapsburg emperor naturally necessitated the cooperation of Prussia, the most powerful German state. In January 1741 negotiations for an alliance were begun." [Emphasis mine.]

Not until June was a Franco-Prussian treaty negotiated, alloting Silesia to Prussia, Moravia to Saxony, and Bohemia, Upper Austria, Tyrol and Swabia to Bavaria. And yet France was still refusing military preparations. Belle-Isle and Fritz were yelling, "Come ON already!" but Fleury was ignoring them.

Only in July 1741 did things turn around. Belle-Isle arrived in Versailles, riding high on successful negotiations with Prussia and the Diet, and convinced Louis that it was time for war.
More France notes
The moment Charles VI dies, Fleury announces that the French will support the Pragmatic Sanction, i.e. MT's inheritance of the Habsburg domains, but will support the Wittelsbach candidate for the imperial crown. Partly because FS is a known opponent of France and Fleury thinks FS will use his position to try to get Lorraine back, partly because helping out Bavaria will honor French treaty obligations to Bavaria in agreements made in 1714, 1727, 1733, and 1738. (Like I said, long tradition.)

Fleury's MO for implementing all this is to send a known expert on German matters and supporter of Bavaria as envoy to the Imperial Diet, namely, Belle-Isle.

I had forgotten one key fact: Belle-Isle's wife was a cousin of the Elector of Bavaria. He had kept in close contact with the Bavarian court in the 1730s. That said, family ties aside, I think he was just straight up right that Fleury's belief that Charles Albert could become emperor without massive domains to draw on was unrealistic. Fleury's plan was to get Charles Albert elected purely via diplomacy, Belle-Isle thought the only way to make it happen was with a large land grab.

On the subject of our AU, I thought this was interesting. From Arthur Wilson's French Foreign Policy During the Administration of Cardinal Fleury 1726-1743,

Fleury wrote to the Elector of Bavaria on December 17, 1740:

The character of the king of Prussia appears to me so extraordinary and so indecipherable that I can not divine either what he wishes to do or what he thinks. He marches into Silesia and one can no longer doubt it. Whether he has in view seizing it or whether he does it in concert with the Archduchess is an impenetrable enigma for us and I can only inform you of my conjectures on that point.

Emphasis mine. I did not realize that there was actual speculation that Fritz and MT were colluding already at the beginning of the invasion!

Also, Wilson is among the historians who thinks Fritz was key in dragging France into the war against Fleury's wishes:

Had the King of Prussia been willing to accept France as a quiescent ally instead of an active one, the Cardinal might have been able to resist the enthusiasms of Belle-Isle. But, once having enticed the French into pour-parlers for an alliance, Frederick II insisted on active French military assistance as a sine qua non. The French court, by instructions to Valory dated February 22, 1741, consented to these demands, but when they arrived, Frederick II had not yet completed his shopping for alliances on the bargain counters of Europe, and the French alliance was left in suspense until June 1.

Also, France was planning to wage war on Great Britain overseas when Charles VI died, and Fleury had to put those plans on ice, and then dispense with them when Belle-Isle got his way over supporting the Wittelsbach land grab:

Not only is it clear that the Cardinal was profoundly dubious about the wisdom of Belle-Isle's forward policy in Germany, but also, from what is known of Fleury's plans for carrying on a maritime war in 1741, it must have occurred to him that Belle-Isle's expensive and adventuresome schemes were conceived with an absolute disregard of France's maritime interests, as a perusal of the memorials which Belle-Isle composed in January 1741, abundantly shows.

The indecision which resulted from this complex of conflicting considerations did not escape the public notice, and [Prussian ambassador to France] Chambrier reported to Frederick II on May 22, 1741:

It has been the entry of Your Majesty into Silesia which has made the Cardinal [i.e. Fleury] quit the pacific policy which he had designed. He hoped to arrange everything by negotiation and to do what he pleased with the court of Vienna by engaging it to throw itself into the arms of France, but, although he is obliged by the conduct of Your Majesty to change his system at present...

Spain
1714: Philip "The Frog" V of Spain marries Isabella Farnese of Parma. The Farnese Duke of Parma (which includes Piacenza) is soon to die and Isabella thinks she, and therefore her son, is the heir. Ditto Tuscany, where the Medici are soon to die out. Her number one goal in life is to get her sons settled with principalities in Italy. Because Philip had sons already by his first wife (Marie-Louise of Savoy, daughter of Machiavellian Victor Amadeus II), who are in line to inherit Spain.

1712-1715: Spain has to give up a lot of territory in the War of the Spanish Succession. Isabella is mad about this because it could have gone to her sons, dammit! Philip is mad about it because Spanish PRIDE!! As a result, Spain goes to war as much as it possibly can trying to get "its" land back.

Early 1730s: After the chaotic diplomacy of the 1720s (the period Blanning thinks is confusing and boring), which included mini diplomatic revolutions like the Anglo-French alliance and the Austro-Spanish alliance, and FW allying with both sides at the same time because why not, the powers of Europe decide that the oldest son of Philip V and Isabella, Don Carlos (he whom Isabella and Philip wanted to marry to MT in the mid 1720s) will get Tuscany and Parma/Piacenza. You may recall that Don Carlos went to Florence and met Gian Gastone, was adopted by him, and GG liked him.

Mid 1730s: War of the Polish Succession. In order to keep the major powers happy, without consulting the minor powers, people decide that Austria will get Parma/Piacenza, FS will get Tuscany, and Don Carlos will get Naples and Sicily instead. Isabella is NOT HAPPY! (Neither is Gian Gastone. The best he can manage is to insist that Tuscany will not be added to the hereditary Habsburg dominions.) This is also part of the "musical territory" arrangements according to which August of Saxony gets to be king of Poland and Stanislas is given Lorraine (where he will meet Voltaire and Emilie), which FS had to give up in return for Tuscany (which Isabella of Spain thought was hers and wanted for her son Don Carlos). Whew!

1740: Charles VI dies. Spain has signed the Pragmatic Sanction, but according to their interpretation, that only applies to the Habsburg hereditary domains, and the territories in Italy aren't included. France is willing to agree. MT is not. Spain's participation in the War of the Austrian Succession is limited to (extensive!) fighting in Italy.

1748: Peace of Aix-la-Chapelle ends the War of the Austrian Succession. France gets to keep Parma as a protectorate. Spain is okay with this, because the son Isabella is trying to get a principality for is Don Philip, who is married to Louis XV's favorite daughter (the one who really really wants to go back to France). So Don Philip and Louise-Elisabeth go to live in Parma. Louise-Elisabeth complains a lot that Don Carlos, when he was there briefly in the early 1730s, took all the art and jewels and basically any movable property with him when he had to trade Parma and Tuscany for Naples-Sicily, and so Parma is a hole in the wall and can Dad, aka Louis XV, please send money? You may recognize these Don Philip and Louise-Elisabeth as the parents of Isabella of Parma, future wife of Joseph II (and also as the parents of Isabella's younger brother Duke Ferdinand of Parma, about whose education I will tell you someday).

So in this AU where MT gives Fritz Silesia, Spain goes to war in Italy no matter what. Spain and Austria were considered "natural" enemies in this period (which is why their brief alliance in the mid 1720s was so mind-boggling to contemporaries). Furthermore, Spain was already, as of 1739, at war with Britain in the War of Jenkins' Ear.

Meanwhile, also in Italy, you may recall that in 1741, Fritz sent Algarotti to Turin to see if he could get Savoy as an ally. This is important because Savoy is a significant medium-power state, strategically located between France and Italy, and much of the fighting is going to take place in Italy.

But because Fritz's "You're not accredited, and don't tell anyone you're working for me" strategy failed miserably, MT was able to make a more successful move to get Charles Emmanuel III as an ally. But not super successful, because what he wants more than anything is a large piece of the Milanese, beacuse he's descended from Philip II of Spain and considers himself the natural heir in Milan. (You may or may not remember that this descent was why CE's side-switching father Victor Amadeus II was considered a candidate for the Spanish throne during the War of the Spanish Succession, and even afterwards, when there was a proposal to have Philip "The Frog" give up Spain and become king of Naples-Sicily instead.) He also wants some coastal territory, since Savoy is almost completely landlocked.

And MT was *not on* with giving up any of these territories to him, and in fact she was hoping not only to hang on to all her Italian domains, but to acquire Naples-Sicily too. (She did not succeed in either of these, though her daughter Maria Carolina will marry Don Carlos's son, aka butt-groping Ferdinand, and become friends with Emma Hamilton later on.) So she was never able to get all the help she hoped for from Charles Emmanuel.

(After Charles Emmanuel dies 30 years later, Peter Keith's son will be sent as envoy (official, unlike Algarotti!) to Turin to try to get on good terms with the new king there. I have no details on how this went, but hey, name-dropping another connection. :))

Bonus Fleury quote describing Fritz during this period:

I confess that the king of Prussia, who is not in this situation [of not being rich or powerful enough for a land grab, like Bavaria], disquiets me more than any other. He has no order in his disposition: he listens to no counsel and takes his resolutions thoughtlessly, without having previously prepared measures suitable for success. Good faith and sincerity are not his favourite virtues and he is false in everything, even in his caresses. I even doubt whether he is sure in his alliances, because he has for guiding principle only his own interest. He will wish to govern and to have his own way without any concert with us, and he is detested throughout Europe.