1740 and All That

selenak asked what would have happened if Maria Theresia had taken up Fritz's offer of Silesia in return for defence of her realm against the rest of Europe. In the course of some lengthy speculation, we ended up writing down a lot of what actually did happen. Here are the notes on the factual parts. See the thread linked to for the speculative parts.

mildred_of_midgard: Part of the reason MT was able to come off so well, holding on to everything apart from Silesia, was the same reason Prussia was able to survive the Seven Years' War: Having four enemies doesn't mean they're all super into supporting each others' land grabs. Fritz specifically wanted to keep France, Bavaria, and Saxony from getting too powerful in Germany. Or as Macaulay put it, "He had no wish to raise France to supreme power on the continent, at the expense of the house of Hapsburg. His first object was to rob the Queen of Hungary. His second was that, if possible, nobody should rob her but himself."

Macaulay actually said that before Fritz invaded, it was looking like Europe would respect the Pragmatic Sanction, and that there wouldn't have been a war of the Austrian Succession without him. I was skeptical at the time, but now having dug more into the internal politics of each country, I'm less skeptical. Saxony and France each have reasons not to go to war over Habsburg territory. Bavaria's unlikely to act alone. Spain would have gone to war regardless, but only in Italy. Russia was in support of Austria and the Pragmatic Sanction (and, like, genuinely, not reluctantly),

selenak: One reason why MT - who, it‘s always worth pointing out, was the first female Habsburg to rule not as a regent for a male monarch but as a monarch in her own right - managed to have her authority accepted in her own realms was that nobility and people alike could see she didn‘t fold, that she didn‘t flee, that she wasn‘t dominated by a favourite and/or her husband. As Rillinger points out, the caricatures during the first two Silesian Wars show the changing public perception - at first you have the misogynistic ones, some even with rape imagery (not disapproving of the rapists), and she’s a damsel crying for help, whereas later you have her wearing the proverbial pants instead. I‘m also thinking of all the envoy reports by Podewils between Silesian Wars saying MT is now bossing everyone around and thus showing what‘s under the „attacked woman“ mask. (Meaning she acts like any other male monarch, I suppose.) Would people have let themselves be ordered if she hadn‘t stood up to Fritz? Female rulers perceived as „weak“ usually don‘t end up ruling long.

( Saxony )
( France )
( More France notes )
( Spain )

Bonus Fleury quote describing Fritz during this period:

I confess that the king of Prussia, who is not in this situation [of not being rich or powerful enough for a land grab, like Bavaria], disquiets me more than any other. He has no order in his disposition: he listens to no counsel and takes his resolutions thoughtlessly, without having previously prepared measures suitable for success. Good faith and sincerity are not his favourite virtues and he is false in everything, even in his caresses. I even doubt whether he is sure in his alliances, because he has for guiding principle only his own interest. He will wish to govern and to have his own way without any concert with us, and he is detested throughout Europe.